Google Struggles With 20 Day Average (Chart) *Up +3.33% for week* GOOG

GOOG!

Google has accused China of a government blockage of Gmail, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has denied the accusation

Google Overview

Google Inc. GOOG closed at $579.74 on Friday, March 25, 2011. Google was up +3.33% for the week, is down -5.49% for March, is down -2.40% for 2011, and is up +99.30% since the March 9, 2009 market cyclical low. GOOG is down -9.36% from the 2011 and multi year closing high of $639.63 on January 18, 2011. That was the highest close since $653.82 on January 14, 2008.

S&P 500 By comparison, the overall market, the S&P 500, at 1313.80, was up +2.70% for the week, is down -1.01% for March, and is up +4.47% for 2011. SPX is up +94.20% since the March 9, 2009 market cyclical low. SPX closed at a multi-year closing high of 1343.01 on Friday, February 18, 2011, the highest close since the June 17, 2008 close of 1350.93. GOOG is outperforming the overall market long-term since the March 9, 2009 market bottom, underperformed the market in 2010, and continues underperforming the market in 2011. A review of the S&P 500 is here [S&P 500 Regains 1300 (Chart) *Above 20 & 50 day averages*].

Google Fundamentals Google reported excellent calendar Q4 2010 financial results on January 20, 2011. Google financial data, charts, and review is at the Google Financial Performance page, updated for the latest calendar Q4 2010 financial results. A review and analysis of the Q3 2010 earnings call is at the Google Earnings Conference Call page and will be updated soon for the Q4 2010 earnings call. Our updated valuation and target price for GOOG stock is posted at the Google Stock Valuation page. Revenues from outside of the United States were 52% of total revenues in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Google Product News Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt announced in February that 350,000 Android devices are being activated daily worldwide. Google announced One Pass on February 16 to counter the Apple announcement the previous day of an App Store subscription service. It does appear that Google is offering more favorable terms to publishers than Apple. Google was in the news in December as a result of the Google Chrome Event on December 7. In addition, Google announced the launch of the Samsung Nexus S Android (Gingerbread OS) smartphone and the opening of the eBooks Store. At the Google Chrome Event, the Chrome Web Store was launched, the Chrome Notebook was unveiled, which is planned to be consumer-ready by mid-2011 with Acer and Samsung as the first manufacturers, and Google announced the Chrome browser user base had increased +300% in 2010 with a conservative count of 120+ million active users. More innovation is coming for the Chrome browser, based on speed via Chrome Instant. Finally, Andrew Rubin tweeted on December 9 that 300,000 Android phones are being activated daily, which is a blowout number. This number - 300,000 Android activations - was reiterated by Jonathan Rosenberg, Senior Vice President of Product Management, during the Q4 2010 earnings call on January 20, 2011. This was after the negative news that the EU had launched an anti-trust investigation.

Economic and Market News Information about the USA and world economies is posted at Boom Doom Economy, Financial Controls, and Baidu Planet. Additional current commentary on both the overall stock market and economy is posted at Matrix Markets.

Google Daily Chart

Google Daily Chart Below is the GOOG daily chart since October 14, 2010 to illustrate all recent price interactions.

Noteworthy Closing Prices

Current Close: $579.74

2011 and Multi-Year High: January 18 $639.63

2011 Low: March 16 $557.10

2010 High: November 8 $626.77

2010 Low: July 6 $436.07

YE December 31, 2010: $593.97

YE December 31, 2009: $619.98

Cyclical Low November 24, 2008: $257.44

Google Chart Review

Intermediate Term Trend descending 25d sma < descending 50d sma, bearish

Long Term Trend 10 month ema = 564.00, tenuously bullish

Resistance 587, 583-584, 20d avg 584, 590-591, 594-595 area, 600, 100d avg 601, 50d avg 604

Support 557, 555, 200-day moving avg 552

Moving Averages below 20d, 25d, 50d, 100d sma's, above 200d sma

Uptrend Line above, from 11-24-08 cyclical closing low 257.44 up thru 7-6-10 closing low 436.07

Downtrend Line below, from 11-6-07 closing high 741.79 down thru 1-18-11 closing high 639.63

RSI 14 Day = 41.88 is near oversold, ascending

RSI 28 Day = 33.94 is oversold, descending

MACD (12,26,9) = +1.55, ascending

Volume below averate 2.5M latest day, 20 day avg = 2.8M, 50 day avg = 2.8M

Price Earnings Ratio 22.04 just below historical average up to 25.00

Conclusion Bullish sentiment for Google had disappeared with 4 consecutive weekly declines prior to the gain this past week. GOOG could not stay above $600. Google tends to languish between earnings reports, as investor interest wanes, but this has been more of a drop than we expected. Google reported excellent Q4 2010 financial results, record-setting, on Thursday, January 20 which are reviewed on the Google Financial Performance page  The announcement of a management restructure is reviewed earlier in this post and also here. A review and analysis of the most recent Q4 2010 earnings call is at the Google Earnings Conference Call. The intermediate-term trend turned bearish on Wednesday, March 9, 2011. The long-term trend is tenuously bullish and a further price drop would threaten this. More about Google the value of GOOG stock on the Google Stock Valuation page.

Disclosure We have no position in GOOG. We are bullish on GOOG for 2011.

About Google

Google's market capitalization is now the 9th largest in the USA at $186.4B. This is behind #1 Exxon $414.64B, #2 Apple $323.87B, #3 Microsoft $215.27B, and and #7 International Business Machines $197.78B. Google is the 4th largest technology company in the USA by market capitalization behind Apple, Microsoft, and IBM. Current Google financial data is at the Google Financial Performance page. A review and analysis of the most recent Q4 2010 earnings call is at the Google Earnings Conference Call page. More about the value of GOOG stock on the Google Stock Valuation page. Headcount: On a worldwide basis, Google employed 24,400 full-time employees as of December 31, 2010, up from 23,331 full-time employees as of September 30, 2010.

Google describes itself in press releases as, "Google's innovative search technologies connect millions of people around the world with information every day. Founded in 1998 by Stanford Ph.D. students Larry Page and Sergey Brin, Google today is a top web property in all major global markets. Google's targeted advertising program provides businesses of all sizes with measurable results, while enhancing the overall web experience for users. Google is headquartered in Silicon Valley with offices throughout the Americas, Europe and Asia."

Google's Mission Statement: "Google's mission is to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful. The first step toward fulfilling that mission came when our founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, working out of a Stanford University dorm room, developed a new approach to online search that quickly spread to information seekers around the globe. Google is now widely recognized as the world's largest search engine -- a free service whose utility and ease of use have made it one of the world's best-known brands almost entirely through word of mouth from satisfied users."

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Google VP Nikesh Arora: Innovation, the Future, Connectivity (Video) "We're going to live in a global cloud" GOOG

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Nikesh Arora, Google Senior Vice President and Chief Business Officer, at the Danish Top Exec Summit

Google VP Nikesh Arora: Innovation, the Future, Connectivity
"We're going to live in a global cloud"

Nikesh Arora, Google Senior Vice President and Chief Business Officer, spoke at the Danish Top Exec Summit earlier in 2011 as the final speaker. Arora begins with the briefing he recieved on what had already been discussed at the Summit: the growth of India and China as superpowers, the impending bankruptcy of the United States, the age of super connectivity, and how the Internet is going to fare in the next ten years. Mr. Arora then says he has discarded his presentation, which has already been covered at the Top Exec Summit, and will discuss other matters. This is a lengthy video (about one hour), some of the highlights are noted below.

Innovation Arora begins with questions to the Top Execs: "What would happen tomorrow if all of us vanished that are in this room? Would there be more or less innovation in ten years?" Arora says, "more" is "highly likely". The younger people who are "excited about making a change" would take our jobs with a "fresh perspective and do something different". He mentions Ray Kurzweil and how "two high school kids" may start the next new business on par with Google or Facebook. See Ray Kurzweil Speaks at Singularity University: Disruptive Change (Video) *Creating transcendent events in the world*. Nikesh Arora asks several questions to the Summit attendees, "Why is that? Why is it that innovation comes from people who are not in these rooms (Top Execs)? Who are still in their early stages of life? Who probably decide not to take the traditional path? Why is it that innovation comes from younger people and who operate in a world of less constraints?"

Innovation: What Are You Doing at Google to Keep So Agile? Arora notes that Google's culture is unconventional. "The conventional wisdom is to optimize the bottom line, try to focus on profits. We (Google) have taken on a view: Let's try and solve large problems of scale with technology and try to create amazing products for end users. And the rest of it will work itself out." Further, "We don't make decisions on how much money is this product going to make? We don't make decisions on what is the bottom line going to look like? We make decisions on how much resources do we have and what interesting problems can we solve?" To solve the most difficult problems, Google must have the best people in the world, Arora notes. Also, the traditional "4 P's" of marketing are not adhered to (promotion, placement, price, product) - "3 P's are set to zero, leaving only 1 P to deal with - product." Nikesh Arora then gives the example of the idea and creation of Google Street View. He concludes, "how do you create great products for end users?" and "business is an after effect of great products for consumers".

Google Employees "Passion in Life" "We look for people who have shown passion in life, we go out and find people who have passion", Arora says. "Once you have the focus of building great products, once you have the notion of hiring great people, then you have to figure out how do you keep them and how do you keep that culture of innovation."

Nikesh Arora's View of the Future Arora believes the technological revolution underway will be remembered as "as one of the four or five major big revolutions of that have happened in the history of mankind." He believes humanity has reached a tipping point, "where the world is going to look very different". In reviewing predictions about the future, Arora declined to predict the future, but observed, "we tend to overestimate the short term and underestimate the long term." He then asked the audience and received responses as to what will be obsolete in the next ten years.

Technological Trends "Living in a Cloud of Information" "We are going to live in a connected world", Arora begins. Regarding dumbphones and smartphones and computers, "The distinction between mobility and no mobility is going to go away. You should be able to think about being connected, no matter where you are." The lines between devices will continue to blur (smartphones, PCs, tablets, TVs), "you will think about devices being connected" and "over time you will think about most devices being connected". Not only that, but also you will be connected to any device you own, anywhere in the world. "We're going to be living in a cloud, a cloud of information." This cloud of information will no longer "be dedicated to your PC". "The notion of barriers, the notion of boundaries (physical, national) is going away. So we are going to live in a global cloud. A new county has been born - the Internet." See Google CEO Eric Schmidt: Cloud computing will define future computing (Video) *Google Chrome Event*.

The World Is Going to Be Connected Arora wants attendees to leave the Summit thinking, "The world is going to be connected. All information is going to be in the cloud. You will be able to access it from every device, as a consumer." As a result of these ongoing changes, "What impact does that have on your business? If you were creating your business today, would you create your business the way it exists today? If you cannot imagine starting your business today, be careful assuming it will survive the technological revolution we are going through. That's the risk you have."

A Google associate of Mr. Arora then gave a demonstration of the advanced capabilities of smartphones via Google products.

Products in the Future Arora concludes, "The way to think about products in the future is to consider products of today as building blocks. Don't think about products today as products themselves. They are the building blocks of products tomorrow."

A video of the Google driverless car was then shown to end the presentation.

Nikesh Arora at the Danish Top Exec Summit Nikesh Arora, Google's Chief Business Officer, takes questions from the audience about the future of media and Google.

About Nikesh Arora
Google Senior Vice President and Chief Business Officer



Nikesh oversees all revenue and customer operations, as well as marketing and partnerships. Since joining Google in 2004, he has held several positions with the company. Most recently, he led Google’s global direct sales operations. He also developed and managed the company’s operations in the European, Middle Eastern and African markets and was responsible for creating and expanding strategic partnerships in those regions for the benefit of Google’s growing number of users and advertisers.

With a background as an analyst, Nikesh’s main areas of focus have been consulting, IT, marketing and finance. Prior to joining Google, he was chief marketing officer and a member of the management board at T-Mobile. While there, he spearheaded all product development, terminals, brand and marketing activities of T-Mobile Europe. In 1999, he started working with Deutsche Telekom and founded T-Motion PLC, a mobile multimedia subsidiary of T-Mobile International. Prior to joining Deutsche Telekom, Nikesh held management positions at Putnam Investments and Fidelity Investments in Boston.

Nikesh holds a master’s degree from Boston College and an MBA from Northeastern University, both of which were awarded with distinction. He also holds the CFA designation. In 1989, Nikesh graduated from the Institute of Technology in Varanasi, India with a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering.

About Google

Google describes itself in press releases as, "Google's innovative search technologies connect millions of people around the world with information every day. Founded in 1998 by Stanford Ph.D. students Larry Page and Sergey Brin, Google today is a top web property in all major global markets. Google's targeted advertising program provides businesses of all sizes with measurable results, while enhancing the overall web experience for users. Google is headquartered in Silicon Valley with offices throughout the Americas, Europe and Asia."

Google's Mission Statement: "Google's mission is to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful. The first step toward fulfilling that mission came when our founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, working out of a Stanford University dorm room, developed a new approach to online search that quickly spread to information seekers around the globe. Google is now widely recognized as the world's largest search engine -- a free service whose utility and ease of use have made it one of the world's best-known brands almost entirely through word of mouth from satisfied users."

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