Saturday, October 22, 2011

Google Flat for Week (Chart, News) *Up +14.65% in October* GOOG


Google has unveiled Dynamic Search Ads: advertisers just point AdWords toward the pages that they want to promote


Google Inc. GOOG closed at $590.49 on Friday, October 21, 2011. GOOG was down -0.20% for the week, is up +14.65% in October and the quarter to-date, is down -0.59% for 2011, and is up +102.99% since the March 9, 2009 market cyclical closing low. GOOG is down -7.68% from the 2011 and multi-year closing high of $639.63 on January 18, 2011. That was the highest close since $653.82 on January 14, 2008.

Google Fundamentals Google reported calendar Q3 2011 financial results on October 13 and are reviewed here: Google Reports Record Earnings! (Charts, Video) *Record revenues, net income, cash flow, EPS*. Current Google financial data, charts, and review is at the Google Financial Performance page, updated for the latest calendar Q3 2011 financial results, reported on October 13, 2011. A review and analysis of the Q2 2011 earnings call is at the Google Earnings Conference Call page, which will be updated soon for Q3. Our updated valuation and target price for GOOG stock is posted at the Google Stock Valuation page. Revenues from outside of the United States were 54.53% of total revenues for Q3 2011, up from 53.97% QoQ and from 51.73% YoY.


Google Daily Chart Below is the GOOG daily chart since July 14, 2011 and the Q2 earnings announcement gap up to illustrate the quarterly price interactions.

Noteworthy Closing Prices
Current Close: $591.68
2011 and Multi-Year High: January 18 $639.63
2011 Low: June 24 $474.88
2010 High: November 8 $626.77
2010 Low: July 6 $436.07
YE December 31, 2010: $593.97
YE December 31, 2009: $619.98
Cyclical Low November 24, 2008: $257.44

Google Chart Review
Intermediate Term Trend ascending 25d avg > level 50d avg since 10-17-11, GOOG > both, bullish
Long Term Trend GOOG > ascending 10 month ema = 555, bullish
Key Resistance at resistance, benchmark 600, 7-26-11 peak 623
Key Support 200d avg 559, 400d avg 545, 20d avg 544, 100d avg 540
Moving Averages above 20d, 50d, 100d, 200d, 400d avgs
Uptrend Line above since 10-14-11; line from 11-24-08 cyclical closing low 257.44 up thru 7-6-10 closing low 436.07
Downtrend Line below since 1-18-11; line from 11-6-07 closing hi 741.79 down thru 1-18-11 closing hi 639.63
RSI 14 Day = 85.67 is overbought, ascending
RSI 28 Day = 62.77 is reasonable, ascending
MACD (12,26,9) = +6.79, descending, multi-year low on 8-19-11 (-11.55), multi-year high on 7-19-11 (+10.07)
Volume average 3.4M latest day, 50 day avg = 3.6M
Price Earnings Ratio (ttm) flat 21.30


Conclusion Google continues in a short-term overbought condition. GOOG gapped up (559 to 592) on Q3 record earnings reported on October 13. GOOG has regained most of the prior Q2 gap up in July (from 529 to 598)Google Co-Founder and CEO Larry Page has more than redeemed himself in Q2 and Q3, after his initial disappointing Q1 2011 financial results as CEO, which created uncertainty over the management restructure. CEO Page is now advancing aggressively with the acquisition of Motorola Mobility. The Q3 2011 financial results are reviewed on the Google Financial Performance page. A review of the Q2 2011 earnings call is posted on the Google Earnings Conference Call and will be updated soon for the Q3 call. We reiterate our forecast that Google should have better financial performance ahead in Q4 2011. The intermediate-term trend is now bullish. The long-term trend continues bullishMore about the value of GOOG stock on the Google Stock Valuation page.

Disclosure We have no position in GOOG. We continue bullish on GOOG for 2011 and even beyond.

Google News A summary of recent news & announcements; others are posted on this blog.
● Google unveiled a significant new tool for advertisers with large Web sites, which it calls Dynamic Search Ads. (Forbes)
● Apple Inc. co-founder Steve Jobs urged Google Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Page to sharpen the company's focus and cut products that put it at risk of becoming like Microsoft Corp., according to a biography of Jobs. (Bloomberg)
● Google has doubled its lobbying spending to Congress in the past 2 years via a political action committee. For the 9ME 9-30-11, Google spent $5.9 million. For the 9ME 9-30-10, Google spent $3.9 million.
● Google reported record earnings for Q3 on October 13, 2011.
● Google and Samsung have postponed the Samsung Mobile Unpacked media event on 10-11-11 to launch the Galaxy Nexus smartphone with Android 4.0 "Ice Cream Sandwich". The event was postponed out of respect for the death of Apple Co-Founder Steve Jobs.
● Google announced on October 4 that Google Earth had been downloaded 1 billion times.
● Google continues with data center expansion. One was opened in Oklahoma in September and 4 more were announced in Ireland, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.
● Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt testified before the Senate Antitrust Subcommittee on September 21 during a hearing examining online competition, "The Power of Google: Serving Consumers or Threatening Competitors?".
● Google and Intel announced a collaborative effort to maximize Intel processor architecture for the Android mobile OS.
● Google Offers, a daily deal effort to compete with Groupon and LivingSocial, has already experienced a decline in revenues in August even though the program is only 3 months old.
● UBS estimates 44% of all e-commerce transactions begin with a product-focused search query, with Google earning revenue as searchers click on paid ads.
● The Chinese government has renewed the 1-year regulatory licence for Google to continue operating. Google reroutes mainland China traffic to its Hong Kong page.
● Google purchased Zave, an incentives and coupon platform, and Zagat, a restaurant reviews company.
● Google has discontinued several products, including Aardvark, Desktop, Notebook, Labs, and Slide.
● Google Android had a leading 41.8% U.S. market share in July 2011 of smartphone subscribers per comScore. Apple iOS was second at 27%.
● Google announced a $500 million settlement with the U.S. Justice Department for carrying ads of unlicensed pharmacies on August 24, 2011.
● Asia: China's Commerce Ministry says Google has not applied for approval of the Motorola Mobility acquisition. Google is opening a Bangkok, Thailand office to enter the Southeast Asia market, with a population of 120 million people. Google already has offices in Kuala Lumpur, Singapore, and South Korea.
● Google announced the acquisition of Motorola Mobility on August 15, 2011.
● Google search had a 65.1% USA market share in July 2011, down from 65.5% in June 2011.
● Google Android had a 48% global market share in Q2 2011 of smartphone shipments per Canalys.


Google Data Google's market capitalization is 13th worldwide at $190.66 billion. This is behind #2 Apple $364.23 billion, #4 Microsoft $229.03 billion, and #7 IBM $216.92 billion. Google is the 4th largest technology company in the world by market capitalization behind Apple, Microsoft, and IBM. Current Google financial data is at the Google Financial Performance page. A review of the Q2 2011 earnings call is at the Google Earnings Conference Call page, which will be update soon for the Q3 call. More about the value of GOOG stock on the Google Stock Valuation page. Headcount: On a worldwide basis, Google employed 31,353 full-time employees as of September 30, 2011. Google is compared to other giant technology companies here [Largest USA Tech Companies: Financial Performance & Position Review].

GOOG! Google describes itself in press releases as, "Google's innovative search technologies connect millions of people around the world with information every day. Founded in 1998 by Stanford Ph.D. students Larry Page and Sergey Brin, Google today is a top web property in all major global markets. Google's targeted advertising program provides businesses of all sizes with measurable results, while enhancing the overall web experience for users. Google is headquartered in Silicon Valley with offices throughout the Americas, Europe and Asia."

Google's Mission Statement "Google's mission is to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful. The first step toward fulfilling that mission came when our founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, working out of a Stanford University dorm room, developed a new approach to online search that quickly spread to information seekers around the globe. Google is now widely recognized as the world's largest search engine -- a free service whose utility and ease of use have made it one of the world's best-known brands almost entirely through word of mouth from satisfied users."

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