Sunday, October 24, 2010

Google Bull Run Continues! (Charts) *Up 16+% in both September & October* GOOG


Google reported excellent Q3 financial results on Thursday, October 14

Google Overview

GOOG Google continued rallying this past week to close at $612.53 on Friday, October 22, 2010. Google was up +1.84% for the week, is up +16.50% in October, and now only down -1.20% for the year. GOOG is up a market-beating +110.57% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. This equates to a gain of +$11.08 for the week, up +$86.74 for October, down -$7.45 for the year, and up an astronomical +$321.64 since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. GOOG is down -2.27% or -$14.22 from the 2010 YTD high of $626.75 on January 4. GOOG has now stayed above the descending 200 day simple moving average for 21 consecutive trading days.  After struggling in the Bear Abyss below $500, GOOG has been above $500 for 25 consecutive trading days and has now been above $600 for 6 consecutive trading days.

S&P 500 By comparison, the overall market, the S&P 500, is up +0.59% for the week, up +3.67% for October, up +6.10% for the year, and up +74.87% since the March 9, 2009 market bottom. SPX is down -2.81% from the April 23, 2010 YTD closing high of 1217.28. GOOG has been outperforming the market since the March 9, 2009 market bottom, underperforming for 2010, outperforming for October and during this current market rally, and outperforming this past week. A review of the S&P 500 (S&P 500 Ekes Out A Weekly Gain (Charts) *Bulls rally 3 straight weeks, 7 of last 8*) is here.

Death Crosses and Reversal A third Death Cross occurred on June 4, the 100 day simple moving average crossed below the 200 day simple moving average. Previously, the 50 day simple moving average crossed below the 200 day simple moving average - the Death Cross or Black Cross, on May 25. Earlier, the 50d sma had crossed below the 100d sma on March 4. However, the 50d sma has now regained the 100d sma, on September 27, negating this earliest Death Cross.

Google News and Fundamentals Google reported excellent Q3 earnings which are reviewed and analyzed on this blog. Current Google financial data, charts, and review is at the Google Financial Performance page, updated for the latest Q3 financial results reported on October 14. A review and analysis of the most recent Q3 earnings call is at the Google Earnings Conference Call page. Revenues from outside of the United States were 52% of total revenues in the third quarter of 2010.

GOOG Earnings per Share Earnings per share for the past 4 quarters have been: Dec09 $6.13, Mar10 $6.06, Jun10 $5.71, Sep10 $6.72, which totals $24.62. At the current GOOG stock price of $612.53, this is a PE of 24.9, which is reasonable, but not high, and above the recent 20-23 range (before Q3 earnings were reported).

GOOG Cash Flow per Share Cash Flow from Operations per Share for the past 4 quarters were Dec09 $8.48, Mar10 $8.01, Jun10 $6.47, Sep10 $8.95, which totals $31.95. At the current GOOG stock price of $612.53, this is a cash flow multiple of 19.2, which is reasonable, but not high.

GOOG Stock Valuation Even now, the current GOOG price of $612.53 appears low, yet continues to reflect some uncertainty over the future EPS growth rate. We believe GOOG is still undervalued and our preliminary price target is $650. A continuation, and validation, of earnings  per share growth in Q4 will determine if GOOG should be valued even higher.

Economic and Market News Information about the USA and world economies is posted at Boom Doom Economy and Financial Controls.

Google Bull Run Continues!

Google Daily Chart Below is the GOOG daily chart since late December 2009 to illustrate how far Google dropped from the January 2010 highs, how much Google has recovered (making up much of the lost ground in one day, October 15!), and the price interactions for recent resistance and support. A monthly chart is included at the bottom of this page for a broader perspective.

Noteworthy Closing Prices on Daily Chart Below
Current Close: $612.53
2010 YTD High, January 4: $626.75
2010 YTD Low, July 6: $436.07
YE December 31, 2009: $619.98

Intermediate-Term Trend The intermediate-term signal, the comparison of the 25 day and 50 day simple moving averages, generated a buy signal on Thursday, September 30. That is, the 25d sma is greater than the 50d sma. However, the relationship between these two moving averages is a lagging indicator and finally caught up with GOOG's amazing September Bull Run +16.8%) that now continues into October (+16.5%).

Resistance Because GOOG is below the 2010 YTD high set in January, there are multiples levels of resistance above. Google is at strong resistance and further gains may be hard won. The momentum from the excellent Q3 earnings report has played out and taken GOOG upwards to this price. GOOG is currently in a consolidation and distribution pattern for the past 3 days. Current resistance is the October 18 peak and close of 617.71 (the highest yellow horizontal line on the daily chart above). Next significant resistance above is the peaking action from the December 28-31, 2009 closings of 622.87, 619.40, 622.73, and 619.98, respectively. Next is the January 4, 2010 YTD closing high of 626.75.

Support Because GOOG is above the YTD lows and summer trading range, there are multiple levels of support below. Current support are the recent closings of 607.98 on October 20 (the middle yellow horizontal line on the daily chart above) and 607.83 on October October 19. Next support is the January 8 close of 602.02 and then the psychological and benchmark price of 600.00. Further below is significant support at the  the closing sub-peak, on April 15, of 595.30 (the lowest yellow horizontal line on the daily chart above).

Moving Averages GOOG has now regained all the moving averages on the daily chart above: the 25, 50, 100, and 200 day simple moving averages. The 25d sma is now ascending very steeply and is above the 50d, 100d, and 200d sma's. The 50d bottomed on September 8, is now ascending sharply, has regained the 100d sma, but is still below the 200d sma. The 100d is ascending, but is below the 200d. The 200d continues to descend but is about to level off.

Uptrend Line The yellow uptrend line, a rate of price ascent, is from the November 24, 2008 closing low of 257.44 up through the July 6, 2010 YTD closing low of 436.07. GOOG broke down through this trendline on August 30 and 31, but bounced above on September 1 and has remained above since.

Downtrend Line The yellow downtrend line, a rate of price descent, is from approximately the November 6, 2007 all-time closing high of 741.79 down through the January 4, 2010 high of 626.75, the peak YTD closing high so far. GOOG gapped up on October 15 to regain downtrend line for the first time since the YTD high on January 4 and has remained above for 6 consecutive trading days.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI 14 day = 84.39 is overbought. The recent low was 17.01 on August 24 and the unbelievable low of 4.79 on July 6. A 2010 YTD high, and multi-year high, of 94.12 was reached on September 27. The RSI 28 day = 83.83 is overbought. The 2010 and multi-year high was 87.87 on October 18. The 2010 lows have been in the mid-20s. The RSIs have been pulled upwards by the September and October rally and spiked up on the October 15 gap up.

MACD (12,26,9) The MACD = +6.04, spiked upwards with the October 15 gap up, and is now downtrending. The 2010 and multi-year high was +7.27 on October 19. The 2010 and multi-year low was -7.66 on January 26.

Volume GOOG traded a mere 2.3M on Friday, October 15 after an incredible 14.8M shares on Friday, October 15, 2010, a YTD and multi-year high. The 20 day moving average is approximately 3.95M, is uptrending, and was 3.1M two days before! By comparison, the 50 day sma is approximately 3.2M.

Long-Term Trend The 10 month exponential moving average of 517.57 is a long-term indicator and shown on the monthly chart below. That is the line in the sand, so to speak, for the long-term signal of a bull or bear market. GOOG rallied above this indicator in September and has stayed above in October. GOOG had been mostly below this long term bear signal from April to August.

Conclusion On October 14, Google reported excellent Q3 earnings which are reviewed on the Google Financial Performance page Google is still an extraordinary cash flow machine! GOOG had rallied with the market and actually outperformed the market during September and October - before the excellent Q3 earnings announcement. Google has set the bar high for the future and EPS growth. The intermediate-term trend is bullish and the long-term trend is bullish.

Google Monthly Chart
Up +138% and +$355.09 from November 28, 2008 cyclical closing low of $257.44!

Below is the monthly GOOG chart since the November 2008 cyclical low. The overall analysis and commentary is the same as for the daily chart above. The current price, the yellow horizontal lines, and the yellow uptrend and downtrend lines are the same, and as described, on the daily chart above. The white moving average line is the 10 month exponential moving average of 517.57, which is the long-term bull or bear market signal. GOOG rallied above 10m ema in September 2010 and the current close of.612.53 continues above, indicating a long term bull market.

We are long GOOG.

About Google

Google market capitalization is now 7th largest in USA at $195.22B, behind #1 Exxon $337.79B and #2 Apple $280.89B. Google is the 3rd largest technology company in USA by market capitalization behind Apple and Microsoft. Just in the past weeks, Google was 13th largest overall company and 4th largest technology company by market capitalization, until the spectacular rally on excellent Q3 earnings. Current Google financial data is at the Google Financial Performance page. Headcount: On a worldwide basis, Google employed 23,331 full-time employees as of September 30, 2010, up from 21,805 full-time employees as of June 30, 2010.

Google describes itself in press releases as, "Google's innovative search technologies connect millions of people around the world with information every day. Founded in 1998 by Stanford Ph.D. students Larry Page and Sergey Brin, Google today is a top web property in all major global markets. Google's targeted advertising program provides businesses of all sizes with measurable results, while enhancing the overall web experience for users. Google is headquartered in Silicon Valley with offices throughout the Americas, Europe and Asia."

Google's Mission Statement: "Google's mission is to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful. The first step toward fulfilling that mission came when our founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, working out of a Stanford University dorm room, developed a new approach to online search that quickly spread to information seekers around the globe. Google is now widely recognized as the world's largest search engine -- a free service whose utility and ease of use have made it one of the world's best-known brands almost entirely through word of mouth from satisfied users."

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